The Chip Witch Blog

15.07.2025 at 00:27:20 UTC

Type	Jul 15	Jul 16	Jul 17
Active	25%	20%	20%
Minor	40%	5%	5%
Moderate	15%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.67	2.67	2.00
03-06UT	3.33	3.00	2.00
06-09UT	2.67	2.67	2.33
09-12UT	2.33	2.33	2.33
12-15UT	2.33	2.33	2.00
15-18UT	2.00	2.00	2.33
18-21UT	3.00	1.00	2.00
21-00UT	2.67	2.33	2.00
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at low levels, with only C-class flare activity observed, the largest of which was a C8.9 at 13/2150 UTC from Region 4141 (S13W84, Cro/beta). New NOAA/SWPC Region 4142 (N02E56, Cso/beta) was assigned to an emerged spot group that produced several C-class and optical subflares. The remaining six designated spot groups changed little during the period, with the exception of some minor growth in Region 4138 (N28W45, Dsi/beta). A Type II radio sweep was detected by the USAF/USSF RSTN network (estimated velocity 205 km/s), but as of this report, no clear source of this activity was determined. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was primarily 6-7 nT and the Bz component was variable, with a maximum south deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from peak speed near 650 km/s to end of period measurements that approached 500 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was low to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.