The Chip Witch Blog

04.06.2025 at 06:39:34 UTC

Type	Jun 4	Jun 5	Jun 6
Active	30%	30%	35%
Minor	30%	30%	25%
Moderate	15%	15%	5%
Strong	5%	5%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.00	5.00	3.33
03-06UT	4.67	4.00	3.33
06-09UT	2.33	3.33	2.00
09-12UT	3.00	3.00	3.00
12-15UT	2.33	2.33	3.00
15-18UT	2.33	2.33	3.33
18-21UT	2.67	3.00	2.00
21-00UT	4.00	3.67	3.33
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.4 flare at 03/1303 UTC from newly numbered Region 4105 (S14E73, Dai/beta). The majority of the C-class flares were attributable to this region, however it currently is too close to the E limb for accurate spot/magnetic classification. Slight Decay was observed in Regions 4099 (S14W50, Dai/beta) and 4100 (N10W41, Eki/beta-gamma).
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters decreased over the period as CME effects diminished. Total field decreased from 14 nT to near 5 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -14 nT at 03/0010 UTC. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 670 km/s to near 550 km/s. Phi angle rotated into a negative sector at 03/0132 UTC for most of the remainder of the period.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 3,370 pfu at 03/0355 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux declined from approximately 3 pfu to near 1 pfu, well below the S1 (Minor) threshold.