The Chip Witch Blog

02.07.2025 at 15:45:30 UTC

Type	Jul 2	Jul 3	Jul 4
Active	20%	25%	35%
Minor	35%	40%	25%
Moderate	25%	15%	5%
Strong	10%	5%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.33	4.67	2.67
03-06UT	5.33	4.33	2.00
06-09UT	5.00	3.33	2.67
09-12UT	4.00	2.67	3.00
12-15UT	3.00	2.33	2.00
15-18UT	3.00	2.67	2.67
18-21UT	3.67	3.00	2.67
21-00UT	4.67	3.67	3.00
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4123 (S28W43, Dro/beta) exhibited slight growth as it underwent consolidation in its leading spots. Region 4126 (N07W76, Dro/beta) redeveloped as it gained rudimentary penumbra. Region 4129 (N02E17, Cri/beta-gamma) produced a C1.1 flare at 01/0002 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Regions 4131 (N08W22, Dro/beta) and 4132 (S18E50, Hrx/alpha) were numbered this period while Region 4130 (S12, L=141) decayed to plage. Additionally, new spots were noted near S17W64 that remained unnumbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters reflected weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total IMF strength ranged 4-7 nT and the Bz component was +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative while undertaking several brief excursions into the positive solar sector.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,650 pfu observed at 01/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.